On-chain data reveals Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation is accelerating as the price approaches new highs.
Key Insights:
- On-chain metrics and technical indicators suggest Bitcoin is poised for a new all-time high (ATH).
- Glassnode data confirms most BTC wallet cohorts are in accumulation mode.
- A bearish divergence on the daily chart raises concerns about BTC’s momentum, questioning its ability to rally toward the $120K–$130K range.
Bitcoin’s price rebounded above $105,000 during U.S. trading hours, forming a double-bottom pattern on the 1-hour chart.
Fractal Analysis Points to New ATH
Bitcoin’s current range between $106,300** and **$100,600 mirrors its earlier consolidation between $97,900** and **$92,700. The pattern follows three conditions:
- Immediate trend reversals at range lows/highs.
- Double-bottom formations after range highs ($97,900 and $107,144).
- Liquidity sweeps above range lows without touching the bottom.
BTC may consolidate within $103,500–$105,200 (orange zone) over the next 24 hours—similar to its previous sideways movement near $95,800–$97,300. If the fractal holds, a breakout above $107,000** could propel BTC to **$110,000+ this week.
👉 Bitcoin’s accumulation trend signals bullish momentum
Failure to hold $103,500** may trigger a retest of **$102,000 support, invalidating the fractal and opening the door to further declines.
Can Bitcoin Overcome Daily Bearish Divergence?
Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score highlights shifting investor behavior:
- Small holders (<1 BTC): Score of 0.55 (bullish).
- Whales (100–10K BTC): Scores of 0.85–0.9 (strong accumulation).
- Only 1–10 BTC wallets remain in distribution.
The transition from blue (distribution) to red (accumulation) signals growing market confidence—historically a precursor to BTC price rallies.
However, analyst Bluntz warns of a daily bearish divergence, where price forms higher highs while the RSI shows lower highs. This suggests weakening buying pressure despite price surges.
Similarly, Matthew Hyland notes BTC must reach $120K–$130K in the coming weeks to avoid confirming a weekly bearish divergence.
👉 How Bitcoin futures data aligns with ATH expectations
FAQ
Q1: What does Bitcoin’s fractal analysis indicate?
A: The current price range mirrors past consolidation phases, suggesting a potential breakout to $110K+ if key levels hold.
Q2: Why is the bearish divergence concerning?
A: It signals declining momentum despite rising prices, potentially delaying a new ATH.
Q3: Which wallet groups are accumulating BTC?
A: Small holders (<1 BTC) and whales (100–10K BTC) show strong accumulation scores.
Q4: What’s the critical support level to watch?
A: $103,500**—losing it may lead to a drop toward **$102,000.
Q5: How high could BTC go this cycle?
A: Analysts eye $120K–$130K, but this depends on overcoming RSI divergences.