Daily Brief
Bitcoin has reclaimed the $50,000 price level, though trading volume continues to decline despite intense price competition. The market received a boost from Meitu's announcement of BTC purchases as value reserves, reinforcing Bitcoin's role as a long-term holding asset.
BTC Options Analysis
Historical Volatility
- 10d: 80%
- 30d: 101%
- 90d: 94%
- 1Y: 88%
Market Metrics
- Options Volume: $436 million
- Open Interest: $9.4 billion
Implied Volatility (IV)
| Term | Today | Yesterday |
|-------|-------|-----------|
| 1M | 96% | 96% |
| 3M | 100% | 100% |
| 6M | 97% | 96% |
Despite BTC's return to $50K, IV remains stable, indicating market equilibrium before the next volatility phase.
Key Observations
- Option Flows: Minor rebound increased Call Buys/Put Sells, but overall activity stayed low.
- Block Trades: Rising volume in weekly/bi-weekly OTM options (10% strike deviation), evenly distributed between calls/puts with fair pricing.
- Open Interest: March (99K BTC), June (33K BTC).
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ETH Options Overview
Historical Volatility
- 10d: 111%
- 30d: 97%
- 90d: 121%
- 1Y: 113%
Market Metrics
- Options Volume: $121 million
- Open Interest: $2.5 billion
Implied Volatility (IV)
| Term | Today | Yesterday | Trend |
|-------|-------|-----------|-------|
| 1M | 111% | 111% | → |
| 3M | 118% | 120% | ↓ |
| 6M | 116% | 117% | ↓ |
ETH's inclusion in Meitu's portfolio hasn’t halted IV decline—technical catalysts remain crucial for sustained momentum.
Key Insights
- Option Flows: Nearly 50% Sell Call orders, signaling reduced upward pressure.
Block Trades: Two dominant patterns:
- Bi-weekly OTM (10% strikes)
- Long-dated deep OTM options (likely portfolio hedging).
- Open Interest: March (61.7K ETH), June (319K ETH).
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FAQ
Q: Why is BTC’s trading volume declining at $50K?
A: Thin liquidity reflects cautious sentiment—investors await clearer macroeconomic signals before committing.
Q: How does Meitu’s BTC purchase impact the market?
A: Corporate adoption as "value reserves" reinforces BTC’s store-of-value narrative, potentially attracting institutional interest.
Q: Is ETH’s IV drop concerning?
A: Not necessarily—it mirrors reduced speculative activity. Focus shifts to network upgrades (e.g., EIP-1559) for future volatility.