Bitcoin (BTC) recently halted a two-week downtrend, bouncing back from a low of $100,200. Despite the recovery, persistent selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs) raises concerns about a potential near-term correction.
The cryptocurrency market remains volatile, with Bitcoin’s next price movement hinging on key technical and macroeconomic factors.
Bitcoin Selling Pressure: Key Concerns
1. Critical Support Levels
Bitcoin’s cost basis quantiles reveal two major support zones:
- $103,700: The 0.95 Spendable Supply Distribution (SSD) indicates 95% of circulating BTC was acquired below this price.
- $95,600: The 0.85 SSD level, where 85% of holders have a lower cost basis.
These levels could act as strong buffers against further declines if selling pressure intensifies.
2. Long-Term Holder (LTH) Activity
LTHs are currently distributing holdings, signaling potential short-term downside risk. However, historical trends suggest such corrections are often temporary.
Bitcoin’s Macro Outlook: Bullish Signals
1. Seasonal Trends
June has historically been a positive month for BTC, with a median return of 2.58%. This seasonal strength could counterbalance LTH-driven sell-offs.
2. Price Resilience
BTC’s 4.7% rebound over three days (now at $106,263**) shows underlying demand. A break above the **$106,265 resistance could propel prices toward $108,000.
Short-Term Price Scenarios
| Scenario | Trigger | Outcome |
|----------|---------|---------|
| Bearish | Failure to hold $106,265 | Drop to $103,700 or $102,734 |
| Bullish | Break above resistance | Rally to $108,000+ |
FAQs
Q1: What are Bitcoin’s key support levels this week?
A: The $103,700** and **$95,600 levels are critical, based on cost basis quantiles.
Q2: Why are long-term holders selling BTC?
A: Profit-taking or portfolio rebalancing, often preceding short-term corrections.
Q3: Could Bitcoin’s price recover soon?
A: Yes, historical June performance and macro momentum favor a rebound.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Conduct your own research before making financial decisions.