Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price remains stable despite $2.4B in realized profits by long-term holders.
- July has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month, averaging 7.56% gains since 2013.
- Market leadership shifts from long-term holders to newer investor cohorts.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade near $106K**, demonstrating resilience amid significant profit-taking. Technical analysis and historical trends suggest a potential breakout toward **$112K this July.
Profit-Taking Fails to Dent Bitcoin’s Stability
Early July saw BTC hold steady around $106,000** despite **$2.46B in daily realized profits by long-term holders. Glassnode data reveals:
- 3–5-year-old coins cashed out $849M.
- 7–10-year-old coins realized $485M.
- 1–2-year holders took $445M in profits.
👉 Why long-term holder activity signals bull market confidence
CryptoQuant’s Yonsei Dent notes this trend reflects optimism:
"Older coin movement during bull cycles indicates confidence, not panic."
Market Leadership Shifts to Newer Investors
On-chain metrics highlight a transition:
- Newer cohorts (1–3 years) are now realizing profits, potentially driving the next rally.
- MVRV ratio for long-term holders stands at 220%, down from 300% in March 2025.
Darkfost adds:
"BTC must reach $140K** to match previous cycle tops. Current realized price: **$39K."
Technical Outlook: Breakout Above $112K?
Key levels to watch:
- Resistance: $112,000 (descending triangle breakout).
- Support: $98,000–$100,000.
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades emphasizes:
"High-timeframe levels are clear—$112K is the linchpin."
Historical patterns suggest:
- Sideways consolidation (195+ days) often precedes rapid price expansions.
- Next target: $140K–$150K (CryptoCon).
July’s Bullish Historical Trends
Coinglass data since 2013:
- Average July return: +7.56%.
- 8/12 Julys closed green (peaking at +24.03% in 2020).
- Never dropped >10% in July.
👉 How Bitcoin leverages seasonal trends for gains
Money Guru Digital predicts:
"July’s historical strength could propel BTC to new ATHs."
FAQ
Q: Why is July historically strong for Bitcoin?
A: Seasonal liquidity inflows, bullish sentiment, and equity market correlations (S&P 500 strength) often drive gains.
Q: Are long-term holders selling en masse?
A: Profit-taking is elevated but balanced by new investor demand—net positive for market health.
Q: What’s the next critical BTC price level?
A: $112K** breakout could confirm a rally toward **$140K–$150K.
Conclusion
Despite profit-taking, Bitcoin’s technicals, historical trends, and rotating market leadership set the stage for a potential July rally. Watch $112K for confirmation.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Conduct your own research.
Moses K is a crypto journalist specializing in markets, regulation, and blockchain trends.
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