In our midyear review, we present 10 key charts that capture essential cryptocurrency market fundamentals and evolving technical patterns.
Key Insights
- Standardized Total Value Locked (TVL) growth by adjusting for price appreciation of native gas tokens across Layer 1 (L1) and Layer 2 (L2) networks.
- Analysis of CME futures basis trades reveals slowed growth in unhedged BTC ETF exposures since early April.
Market Overview
Our curated charts highlight pivotal on-chain metrics, liquidity shifts, and correlation dynamics shaping crypto markets in 2024.
Fundamental Trends
1. TVL Growth Adjusted for Token Price
Rather than raw TVL comparisons, we track growth normalized by native token performance:
- TVL outpaced total crypto market cap, rising 24% YoY.
- Fastest-growing chains: TON, Aptos, Sui, and Base—all emerging networks benefiting from rapid adoption phases.
👉 Explore real-time TVL metrics
2. Activity Drivers: Fees vs. Users
A May 2024 snapshot shows:
- Declining fees across most networks (except Solana/Tron).
- Ethereum L2s (e.g., Arbitrum) saw active addresses surge post-EIP-4844 fee reductions.
- Cardano and BSC exhibited fee drops exceeding wallet activity declines.
3. Ethereum Fee Breakdown
Post-Dencun upgrade (March 2024):
- Rollup costs fell from 12% → <1% of mainnet fees.
- MEV-driven fees rose 8% → 14%, while direct transaction fees jumped 20% → 36%.
4. Ethereum L2 Expansion
- L2 TVL grew 2.4x YoY, reaching $9.4B by May.
- Base captured 19% of L2 TVL, trailing only Arbitrum (33%) and Blast (24%).
- Blob storage implementation slashed fees despite record-high transaction volumes.
5. Bitcoin Supply Dynamics
- Active supply (moved in 3 months) peaked at 400K BTC in April—highest since 1H2021—then dropped to 310K by June.
- Long-term holdings (1+ year) remained stable, signaling tempered short-term optimism.
Technical Analysis
6. Asset Correlations
Bitcoin showed moderate correlation with:
- Equities (S&P 500: 0.36)
- Commodities
- USD index
- ETH-S&P 500 correlation (0.37) nearly matched BTC’s.
- BTC/ETH correlation eased from 0.85 (March-April) to 0.81.
7. Liquidity Trends
- Spot + futures volumes fell 34% from March’s $111.5B peak but stayed elevated at $74.6B in May—above all months since September 2022 except March 2023.
- Post-ETF, spot BTC volumes rose 50% by May ($7.6B vs. $5.1B in December).
👉 Track crypto liquidity trends
8. CME Bitcoin Futures
- Open interest (OI) grew 2.2x YTD (to $9.7B), largely driven by basis trades post-ETF approval.
- CME’s market share surged from 16% (2023) to ~30%, reflecting institutional demand.
9. CME Ethereum Futures
- ETH OI neared record highs but remained dominated by perpetual contracts (85% of $12.1B total).
- CME futures accounted for just 8% ($1.1B).
10. Isolating BTC Basis Trades
Standardized ETF vs. CME OI data confirms:
- Post-April ETF flows were predominantly basis-trade-driven.
- ETF-held BTC plateaued at 825K–850K until late May’s breakout.
FAQ Section
Q1: How does EIP-4844 impact Ethereum fees?
A1: The upgrade reduced L2 rollup costs by ~90%, shifting fee structures toward MEV and direct transactions.
Q2: Why did BTC active supply drop in June?
A2: Typically follows price peaks, indicating reduced trading momentum—a cyclical pattern observed since 2021.
Q3: Are ETH ETFs influencing futures markets?
A3: Yes—19b-4 approvals triggered OI spikes, though perpetual contracts still dominate trading.
Q4: What’s driving L2 growth?
A4: Lower fees and scalable infrastructure attract developers and users, with Base emerging as a top contender.
Q5: How reliable are ETF flows as demand indicators?
A5: While useful, basis trade distortions necessitate adjusted interpretations of inflow data.
Q6: Will correlation with traditional markets persist?
A6: Likely, as institutional participation deepens—but crypto-specific catalysts (e.g., halvings) remain key drivers.
Data insights and methodology sourced from Coinbase Institutional Research. Analysis reflects market conditions as of June 2024.