Whale Pressure and Market Dynamics
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing significant selling pressure from long-term holders and large investors, keeping its price range-bound between $100,000 and $110,000 despite substantial ETF inflows.
Key Factors Impacting Bitcoin’s Price
ETF Inflows vs. Price Stagnation
- Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) attracted nearly $11 billion in Q2 2025.
- Institutions like Metaplanet increased Bitcoin holdings, yet the price failed to break past $111,000.
Whale Activity
- Whales (holders with 10,000–100,000 BTC) who bought at $0–$800 have been selling since 2017.
- The number of addresses holding 1,000+ BTC dropped from 2,114 to 2,008 in late May 2025.
OTC Transactions
- Older coins are being reactivated and traded over-the-counter (OTC) to supply ETFs, avoiding direct market price impact.
- Supply on OTC desks and exchanges has declined 20–30% since 2024, potentially signaling future price increases.
Retail Interest Decline
- Retail participation dropped 10% in June 2025, limiting upward momentum.
Bitcoin Milestones and Projections
| Year | Event |
|---|---|
| 2017 | Large whales begin selling BTC holdings. |
| May 2025 | BTC peaks at $111,000. |
| June 2025 | OTC/exchange reserves drop sharply. |
| October 2025 (Projected) | VC Chamath Palihapitiya predicts $500,000 BTC, citing halving trends. |
FAQs: Addressing Key Questions
Q: Why isn’t Bitcoin’s price rising despite ETF inflows?
A: Whale selling and OTC transactions offset ETF demand, preventing price surges.
Q: How are older Bitcoin coins affecting the market?
A: Reactivated coins are traded OTC to supply ETFs, bypassing public order books.
Q: Could Bitcoin’s reduced supply lead to a price increase?
A: Yes, the 20–30% drop in available supply since 2024 may create upward pressure.
Q: What’s the long-term outlook for Bitcoin?
A: Analysts remain optimistic, with projections like 👉 Bitcoin reaching $500K by October.
Market Watch
Monitor whale activity and ETF trends closely. While short-term pressures persist, Bitcoin’s scarcity and institutional adoption could drive future gains.
👉 Explore Bitcoin’s halving cycles for deeper insights into price patterns.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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