Since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the Bitcoin Spot ETF on January 10, 2024, and commenced trading the following day, a surge of ETF applications has emerged—spanning major cryptocurrencies and altcoins. This article examines pending crypto ETF applications, their approval likelihood, and potential market impacts.
Part 1: Current Crypto ETF Applications
SOL (99% Approval Likelihood)
Key Developments:
- REX Shares announced a Solana staking ETF (REX-OspreySOL+Staking ETF) on June 28, aiming to track SOL performance with on-chain staking yields.
- Invesco and Galaxy Digital filed for the "Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF" (ticker: QSOL), with Coinbase Custody as the custodian.
- Grayscale’s Solana Trust ETF 19b-4 form was acknowledged by the SEC on February 12, with a final decision expected by October 10, 2025.
- Market Prediction: Polymarket forecasts a 99% approval chance.
XRP (85% Approval Likelihood)
Global Firsts:
- Brazil’s B3 exchange launched XRPH11, tracking Nasdaq’s XRP Index (April 25).
- Purpose Investments debuted North America’s first XRP Spot ETF (XRPP) on the TSX (June 18).
- Pending U.S. Applications: Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares have filed XRP Spot ETF proposals.
- Expert Insight: Nate Geraci (ETFStore CEO) suggests Ripple’s legal clarity paves the way for XRP ETFs.
- Prediction: 85% approval likelihood (Polymarket).
BNB (Probability Undisclosed)
- VanEck’s Move: Registered a BNB ETF in Delaware (April 2) and submitted an S-1 filing (May 5).
- Analyst Note: Eric Balchunas links VanEck’s interest to BNB’s potential role in national crypto reserves.
SUI (60% Approval Likelihood)
- 21Shares’ Bid: Filed for a SUI Spot ETF (May 27), with Nasdaq submitting the 19b-4 to the SEC (June 11).
- Prediction: James Seyffart estimates a 60% chance.
LTC (82% Approval Likelihood)
- Applications: Grayscale and Canary Capital submitted LTC ETF filings (January 2025).
- SEC Delay: Canary’s proposal was postponed (May 6).
- Prediction: 82% approval likelihood (Polymarket).
Part 2: Will Crypto ETFs Trigger an "Altcoin Season"?
Market Dynamics
- Investor Sentiment: ETF approvals often drive preemptive buying, boosting prices.
- Liquidity Growth: Post-approval inflows enhance market depth.
Expert Predictions
- Eric Balchunas (Bloomberg): "An altcoin ETF summer led by Solana is plausible."
- Michaël van de Poppe: "The altcoin market hasn’t fully awakened—expect a historic bull run."
FAQ Section
1. Which crypto ETF has the highest approval chance?
SOL leads with 99%, followed by DOT and AVAX (90%).
2. How do ETF approvals impact crypto prices?
Historically, approvals correlate with short-term price surges due to investor optimism.
3. Are there risks in investing via crypto ETFs?
Yes—regulatory delays and market volatility remain key concerns.
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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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