Introduction
Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) touched its all-time high in USD terms, marking the official start of this bull market. Unlike the rebound from bear market lows, this phase will see heightened emotions and more volatile price action.
Key characteristics of a bull market’s formal stage include:
- Transition from BTC dominance to altcoin leadership (declining Bitcoin dominance).
- Faster and more aggressive price surges across tokens.
- Rapid increase in mainstream attention (social media, search trends).
This article explores potential differences between this cycle and past ones, offering strategic insights.
Disclaimer: Views are subjective and may change. Not financial advice.
Key Drivers of Crypto Bull Markets and Alpha Opportunities
Bull Market Catalysts
Past cycles show that bull markets are driven by multiple factors:
- BTC Halving: Supply shock anticipation (next halving: April 2024).
- Monetary Policy: Expectations of Fed rate cuts (consensus: Q2 2024).
Regulatory Tailwinds:
- FASB accounting updates (fair-value crypto reporting).
- SEC’s Grayscale ruling paving way for BTC ETFs.
- Innovation: New asset classes/business models.
The current cycle already has the first three catalysts in place.
Alpha Trends in Past Cycles
Each bull cycle’s top performers were new asset classes:
- 2017: ICO platforms (NEO, QTUM).
- 2021: DeFi, GameFi, NFTs (first major breakout).
In contrast, 2024’s innovations are limited:
- BTC Ecosystem: Ordinals (e.g., ORDI), BTC L2s.
- Web3 AI: Distributed compute (Akash, Render) and newer projects like Bittensor (TAO).
However, AI is not crypto-native—it’s an external trend bleeding into crypto.
Bull Market Projections and Tactics
Misjudging Alpha Opportunities?
Many portfolios overweight DeFi, GameFi, and L1 altcoins, expecting outsized returns. Yet history shows:
- New asset classes outperform old ones.
- Second-cycle narratives face skepticism (e.g., “prove growth” vs. “disprove” in first cycles).
Example: L1s surged in 2021 due to real demand (DeFi/NFT boom). Current cycle lacks comparable catalysts.
BTC and ETH: Better Risk/Reward
ETF inflows are this cycle’s primary driver, favoring:
- BTC: “Digital gold” narrative strengthened by institutional adoption.
- ETH: Short-term upside via ETF speculation (low ETH/BTC ratio).
Long-term: BTC’s store-of-value edge may outperform ETH’s “tech stock” profile.
Strategy Summary
- Overweight BTC + ETH (~60–70% of portfolio).
- Limit exposure to legacy sectors (DeFi, GameFi, NFTs).
Target emerging alpha:
- Meme coins: Speculative, viral potential.
- AI: External momentum (e.g., GPT-5 hype).
- BTC Ecosystem: Ordinals (new asset class) > BTC L2s (recycled L1 narratives).
The Cycle Has Shifted Forward
Historically, BTC’s biggest gains came 1 year post-halving (e.g., +5,372% in 2013). Recent cycles show earlier peaks:
- 2020: Halving-year gains (+273%) > 2021 (+62%).
- 2024: BTC already up ~60% YTD before halving.
👉 Key Insight: 2024 is likely the prime year for gains—not 2025. Adjust positioning accordingly.
FAQ
Q1: Why focus on BTC/ETH over altcoins?
A1: ETF inflows are this cycle’s dominant force. Altcoins lack comparable catalysts.
Q2: Are meme coins a serious investment?
A2: They’re high-risk, high-reward speculative plays—allocate sparingly.
Q3: Will AI tokens sustain momentum?
A3: Dependent on broader AI trends; monitor partnerships (e.g., TAO’s research).
Final Thought: Capitalize on 2024’s momentum. By 2025, focus shifts to profit-taking.
Happy hunting this bull run! 🚀
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