Ethereum's native token (ETH) has plummeted to multi-year lows against Bitcoin (BTC), triggering analyst predictions of further declines in the coming weeks.
Accelerating Sell-Off Risks Amid "Falling Knife" Warning
On March 13, the ETH/BTC pair dropped over 1.50% to $0.022—its lowest level since May 2020.
This decline continues Ethereum's multi-year downtrend from its June 2017 all-time high of 0.156 BTC. Since then, ETH has cratered 85%, highlighting its weakening position against Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the 2-week Relative Strength Index (RSI)—a momentum indicator tracking overbought/oversold conditions—hit a record low of 23.32. Typically, RSI readings below 30 signal oversold rebounds. However, ETH’s RSI has kept falling despite being oversold for two months, suggesting accelerating downward momentum rather than stabilization.
Crypto analyst Alessandro Ottaviani likened this to a "falling knife" scenario—where rapidly declining assets deter buyers from premature entries. For ETH to signal a reversal, traders await:
- RSI stabilization
- Reclaiming key resistance levels (notably 0.022 BTC, which sparked a 300% rally in December 2020)
If a rebound occurs, ETH/BTC could retest the 0.382 Fibonacci level (~0.038 BTC), aligning with the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Otherwise, technicals point to:
- Next support zone: 0.020–0.016 BTC (up to 30% drop from current prices)
Fundamental Factors Fueling ETH’s Bearish Outlook
Beyond technicals, three structural pressures threaten ETH/BTC:
- Competitive Erosion: Solana’s DEX volumes now surpass Ethereum’s, even during meme coin slumps (VanEck data).
- Bitcoin ETF Disruption: $129B inflows into BTC ETFs diverted liquidity from altcoins, disrupting historical "altseason" cycles.
- ETH-Specific Selling: Bybit’s hack-induced ETH liquidations and decentralized laundering (e.g., Thorchain) add sell pressure.
FAQs
Q: Why is ETH dropping against BTC?
A: Competitive, macroeconomic, and ETF-related liquidity shifts favor BTC’s dominance over ETH.
Q: Will ETH recover against Bitcoin?
A: Rebound potential exists if ETH holds 0.022 BTC support, but current momentum favors further downside.
Q: How low can ETH/BTC go?
A: Analysts eye 0.016–0.020 BTC (30% lower) as the next historical support zone.
👉 Why Ethereum’s next 30 days could redefine its market position
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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